A new report from the Brussels-based think-tank said many of Boko Haram's senior commanders are probably based outside Nigeria, including in neighbouring Cameroon and Niger.
The Crisis Group said Shekau is an isolated leader, with little daily control over the cells of the sect.
Citing an anonymous Nigerian intelligence source, the experts suggested Shekau has partially lost support because some Boko Haram members "are fed up with the bloodletting (and) want to settle down".
The report added that Boko Haram members were "more dispersed than ever, with many leaders in (Nigeria's) Adamawa mountains, Cameroon, and Niger".
However, the 62-page document contains conclusion that under Shekau's leadership, "Boko Haram has grown more ruthless, violent and destructive".
The Crisis Group report supported the notion previously voiced by local and foreign analysts that force alone cannot end the insurgency. Massive development and poverty alleviation schemes for the troubled North are required in order to form the society which will resist any attempts of radicatization.
It would be recalled that Boko Haram sect has emerged more than a decade ago under the leadership of Mohammed Yusuf, a Muslim preacher from the northeast who gained considerable support through his vocal criticism of outrageous corruption.
Shekau used to be one of Yusuf's top deputies and took over Boko Haram following Yusuf's death in police custody in 2009.
The group has been blamed for waves of gruesome attacks since 2010, notably suicide bombings at churches, the slaughter of defenceless civilians and students at boarding schools as they slept.
The Islamist group Ansaru, which is thought to be an offshoot of Boko Haram and has claimed the killing and murder of several foreign hostages, takes almost no direction from Shekau.
Ansaru claimed responsibility for a series of high-profile abductions last year, but little has been heard from the group in recent months.
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